A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
